Bitcoin and XRP During ‘Sell in May’

In traditional finance, the phrase “Sell in May and go away” reflects a strategy of exiting markets in May to avoid the summer lull. But does this approach hold true in the world of cryptocurrencies? Especially for leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP), historical data and current market volatility suggest a far more complex picture.

Historical Trends: “Sell in May” in the Crypto Market

Since Bitcoin emerged as a mainstream financial asset, May has consistently been a month worth watching. Reliable data from StatMuse and Binance reveals that in May 2017, Bitcoin surpassed the $2,000 mark for the first time, rising from approximately $1,348 to $2,286. However, not every May has delivered gains. In 2018, BTC fell nearly 20%, dropping from $9,200 to $7,494. The most dramatic correction occurred in May 2021, when the price plunged from $58,000 to just $37,332 amid China’s crackdown on crypto mining.

XRP posted a 15% gain, rising from $0.45 to $0.52, driven by optimism surrounding the Ripple v. SEC lawsuit and a general altcoin recovery.

However, in May 2024, XRP moved sideways in the $0.52–$0.55 range, reflecting investor caution during the lawsuit’s final stages. Liquidity declined slightly, and the price failed to break out despite signs of recovery across the altcoin sector. This underscores how heavily XRP depends on news-driven catalysts rather than technical setups or short-term speculative inflows.

May 2024: On-Chain Data and Derivatives Activity

In early May 2024, the market observed a notable increase in the amount of Bitcoin transferred from cold wallets to exchanges, according to data from Glassnode. This is a classic signal of potential profit-taking, especially as BTC had just touched the $67,000 mark at the end of April.

Meanwhile, the funding rate – a measure of the difference between derivatives prices and spot prices – turned negative on major platforms such as Binance and OKX. This shift indicates that speculative sentiment has tilted toward short-term bearish expectations.

Despite this, institutional capital remains steady. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s iShares and Fidelity Advantage, have not experienced significant outflows. This supports the view that most selling pressure is coming from retail investors and short-term traders, while long-term holders continue to view BTC as a store of value amid persistent inflation.

Seasonality is another important factor. Data cited by Matrixport shows that Bitcoin historically underperforms in May, with average returns skewing negative across several years. This seasonal trend reinforces a more defensive market posture, especially as global financial markets remain under pressure from inflation and prolonged monetary tightening.

Some analysts warn that the “Sell in May” effect could resurface strongly this year unless a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges in the short term.

May 2025: Between Risks and Optimism

As May 2025 begins, Bitcoin is trading around $94,598, just shy of its all-time high set in early April. This strong rally is accompanied by robust liquidity and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, XRP has reached $2.17, marking an impressive recovery from sub-$1 levels just six months ago.

However, despite these bullish technical signals, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate above 5% and has reiterated that no policy pivot is expected in 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since October 2023, dampening demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

On a positive note, data from on-chain analytics platforms such as CryptoQuant indicates that BTC outflows from exchanges continue to rise. The number of wallets holding BTC for over 12 months has reached an all-time high, signaling long-term investor conviction that the bull trend remains intact, despite monetary tightening and global economic uncertainty.

Prevailing Market Sentiment

Based on current technical analysis and macroeconomic conditions, analysts have outlined two clear scenarios for the crypto market in Q2 2025.

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could extend its upward momentum and reach the psychological $100,000 milestone if the upcoming May CPI data shows U.S. inflation cooling below 3%. Such a reading would raise hopes of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve later in the year, encouraging further capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional demand stays strong as BTC in funds hits a yearly high. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could very well set a new all-time high in 2025.

For XRP, the post-litigation phase following the SEC’s withdrawal of its appeal in March 2025 has opened a new chapter. The end of Ripple’s legal battle has calmed investors and cleared U.S. legal risks. This paves the way for institutional investors to re-engage with XRP at scale. 

The CME Group’s confirmation that it will list XRP futures contracts in mid-May 2025 further reinforces the token’s institutional positioning. As capital shifts to mid-caps, XRP may gain if bullish signals persist. Prices could target the $2.50 range or higher, particularly if derivative platforms ramp up marketing and trading volumes remain strong.

A bearish turn may follow hotter CPI or a jump in unemployment. The Fed may keep rates high longer, adding pressure on risk assets. BTC may drop to $85K–$88K support as spot activity slows amid rising caution.

Even with XRP’s improved outlook post-lawsuit, short-term risks remain. Speculative capital could quickly shift toward trending sectors like meme coins or AI tokens, fragmenting XRP’s liquidity. CME’s XRP futures may draw institutions but also risk fueling shorts if sentiment weakens. If trading volume weakens and technical momentum fades, XRP may correct back to the $1.80 range in the short term.

Conclusion

May has long been a noteworthy month for traditional financial markets. However, in the realm of digital assets, investor sentiment, regulatory developments, and institutional flows play a far more decisive role than seasonal patterns.

In 2025, the crypto market is experiencing a strong wave of growth despite lingering macroeconomic headwinds. Bitcoin remains near its all-time highs, while XRP is steadily reclaiming its position amid favorable legal developments. The “Sell in May” strategy may still apply during certain pullback phases, but rigidly following it could cause investors to miss out on key opportunities in a broader bull cycle.

From a long-term perspective, May 2025 may simply represent a temporary pause, a healthy correction before the crypto market resumes its upward trajectory for the remainder of the year.

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