Estimating the Fair Value of HYPE in 2025

In a landscape saturated with perpetual trading protocols, Hyperliquid emphasized itself by doing what others haven’t: building an entirely new, performance-optimized Layer 1 tailored specifically for trading. With its blazing-fast settlement, sub-second finality, and gasless user experience, Hyperliquid isn’t just another dApp — it’s an entire trading-focused blockchain stack.

The protocol’s native token, HYPE, has generated increasing interest as trading volume soars and its ecosystem diversifies. But without VC funding, centralized token unlocks, or early public raises, many traditional valuation anchors don’t apply. This makes it essential to model HYPE’s fair value using first principles and real-world data.

Framework: A Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) Valuation Model

To concisely value a multi-vertical protocol such as Hyperliquid, we use a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) model — a technique common in equity research to value conglomerates with distinctive business lines. Hyperliquid now operates across three key dimensions:

1. Perpetual DEX revenue, which currently dominates the platform’s cash flow.
2. Spot trading revenue, a newer stream that reflects Hyperliquid’s expansion into orderbook-based spot markets.
3. Layer 1 chain value, driven by its infrastructure, execution layer (HyperEVM), and the builder ecosystem.

For more: Hyperliquid Deep Dive: Understand HYPE and HLP Model

Each vertical is modeled independently, then summed to yield a range of implied token valuations. A 20% premium is added in some cases to reflect potential scarcity or user demand for HYPE as a utility token.

Composite valuation summary:

Component	Low Case	High Case
Perpetual DEX Value	$11	$16
Spot Trading Value	$3	$6
Layer 1 Chain Value	$18	$27
Total Implied	$32	$49
With Premium	$38	$59

This model gives a realistic range of expectations while also accommodating the upside potential of a rapidly scaling DeFi-native Layer 1.

Perpetuals Valuation: The Core Engine

Hyperliquid’s core product is its high-performance perpetual exchange, which runs entirely on-chain yet delivers execution speeds and latency rivaling key players in the centralized exchanges sector. This is made possible by its custom-built HyperL1 architecture — offering deep order books, native staking, and lightning-fast block production.

Early 2025, Hyperliquid daily perps volume reached more than $700 million, making it one of the highest-volume DEXs. With protocol fees of 0.03% on trading volume and a revenue-sharing model, perps generate substantial annualized revenue.

These figures assume a 15x revenue multiple, which is conservative compared to comparable DEXs like dYdX or Vertex (trading at 30–150x P/S). Even with modest market share, Hyperliquid’s token could justify double-digit valuations from this vertical alone.

For more: Hyperliquid Ecosystem Overview and Investment Thesis

Spot Trading Valuation: Building a Full-Stack Exchange

While Hyperliquid launched as a perpetual-only platform, its recent foray into spot markets is a strategic step toward becoming a full-stack trading venue. Spot orderbooks were added in late Q1 2025, and early adoption has been promising — with native listing tools and automatic market making incentives.

Spot volume is modeled as a percentage of perps volume, with two scenarios:

• Conservative (15%)
• Aggressive (30%)

Spot fee projections and resulting valuations:

As spot markets grow and more assets are added, this vertical could significantly boost Hyperliquid’s revenue diversification — and act as a hedge if perps trading becomes less dominant.

Layer 1 Valuation: Hyperliquid as a Next-Gen Execution Layer

Beyond trading, Hyperliquid is building a programmable, modular L1 blockchain — HyperEVM — to attract builders and apps. This positions it not only as a DEX, but as an execution layer that can host vaults, stablecoins, RWA protocols, synthetic assets, and more.

To evaluate the value of this infrastructure, we benchmark Hyperliquid against other Tier 2 L1 chains:

The weighted average FDV is ~$16.5B, which gives a strong basis for valuing Hyperliquid’s L1 platform at $18–27 per token, assuming a ~920M circulating supply. This also doesn’t include the optionality of ecosystem incentives, protocol revenue sharing, and potential real-world integrations.

Final Valuation Range for HYPE

Combining all three streams — and adjusting for circulating supply, revenue share, and multiple ranges — we arrive at the following implied token valuation:

This aligns with current circulating supply estimates (920–950M HYPE) and provides a full-picture assessment of value for both long-term holders and ecosystem participants.

Assumptions, Multiples, and Methodology

This valuation is based on publicly available metrics and modeled using conservative assumptions to avoid over-optimism:

• Revenue Multiple: 15x (standard for top DEXs)
• Spot-to-Perps Ratio: 15–30%
• Circulating Supply: ~920M–950M HYPE
• L1 Benchmark: Based on comparable mid-cap Layer 1 chains
• Premium: A 20% scarcity premium is added to reflect demand concentration

In which circulating supply counted after buybacks, unclaimed tokens were removed.

These assumptions can be adjusted to model different macro scenarios or protocol evolution paths.

Risk Factors

Even though Hyperliquid presents a strong growth case, there are several risks remain, both at the token level and protocol level:

• Unclear token unlock schedule could impact circulating supply and dilute returns
• Volume sustainability is uncertain if incentive programs taper off
• Ecosystem depth is still growing and unproven compared to older L1s
• Regulatory ambiguity around perpetuals and non-KYC trading remains a potential overhang
• Competitive pressure from centralized venues (Binance, OKX) and L2-based DEXs (Aevo, Vertex) could compress margins

Investors should evaluate these risks and adjust exposure accordingly.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid is not just a perpetual DEX — it is a modular, fully on-chain trading Layer 1 with real revenue, infrastructure value, and deep staking participation. As crypto matures and more trading activity moves on-chain, protocols like Hyperliquid that own the full stack will be positioned to capture significant market share.

With a projected fair value range of $38 to $59, the HYPE token appears undervalued at current levels. Whether you’re a DeFi investor, on-chain trader, or builder evaluating where to deploy, Hyperliquid presents a uniquely aligned, high-upside opportunity for the 2025–2026 cycle.