Bitcoin eyes either $124k or $108k before Christmas as leverage thins after $1.7B in liquidations

Bitcoin price traded near $113,000 on Monday after a weekend liquidation that wiped more than $1 billion in leveraged longs, with derivatives and macro gauges now central to the next move.Spot hovers around $112,965 intraday, about 10% below the recent peak, as the market digested last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut and a pick-up in volatility.The reset began in futures, where forced unwinds flushed long exposure across major venues. More than $1.6 billion in long positions were liquidated over the weekend, while open interest rolled off from near cycle highs, leaving a thinner but still sizable notional base across Binance, Bybit and CME.Coinglass’ dashboards show BTC futures open interest retreating, funding compressing toward neutral across key perps, and liquidation heatmaps clustering above and below spot.Options repriced the shockDeribit’s analytics and Laevitas’ 25-delta skew data show short-tenor puts trading at a premium to calls, a structure consistent with demand for downside protection and with dealers leaning short gamma near spot. That profile tends to increase intraday amplitude when spot sits inside negative gamma pockets, then dampens as gamma flips positive on stabilization.Flows are not one-way. According to Farside Investors, the US spot ETF complex posted a rare September net outflow of about $51 million on Wednesday, Sept. 17, with IBIT taking in roughly $150 million while FBTC and GBTC saw redemptions. Thursday and Friday then saw a recovery, bringing in $385 million before the weekend. Mixed prints of this type can cap immediate momentum yet keep a medium-term bid in place if aggregate inflows resume.Basis and term structure offer the health check for Q4. CryptoQuant’s CME annualized basis series, a proxy for carry demand from arbitrage capital, eased from elevated levels into mid-September and bears watching for a sustained move toward the low-teens annualized, which would be consistent with cleaner positioning. A quick re-acceleration in basis back into the high-teens or above would argue leverage is rebuilding into any bounce.Macro still matters at the margin. The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near the low-4% handle after the Fed’s quarter-point cut, while the Dollar Index firmed into the new week, conditions that can pressure crypto beta if they persist.According to MarketWatch’s 10-year page, the 10-year sat around 4.1%, and the Dollar Index strengthened alongside cautious equity futures. These prints are tactical headwinds for a fast upside follow-through, though their impact tends to be episodic when crypto is position-driven.With those inputs, the path analysis into early Q4 reduces to two competing ranges that map to visible liquidation pools and dealer positioning.Scenario A, a snap-back squeeze, would carry spot toward $118,000 to $124,000, a zone that overlaps with upside liquidation clusters shown on Coinglass’ heatmaps and with common gamma friction points around round figures.The trigger set would include funding pinned at or below flat on green days, a mild rebuild in outright shorts, a drift toward neutral skew, and steady to positive ETF net flows for several sessions. Those conditions would convert residual open interest into fuel for incremental upside, then transition to range once gamma turns protective.Scenario B, a second flush before any recovery, would probe $104,000 to $108,000, where liquidation density thickens below recent lows, with risk that negative skew persists and ETF flows remain soft while the 10-year and DXY stay firm.Under that path, funding would slip neutral to negative on red days across major venues, and implied volatility would hold bid as dealers maintain short gamma beneath $115,000. That mix keeps downside path dependence in play until open interest reduces further or options inventory flips the intraday impulse.Position size on regulated venues is a useful cross-checkCME’s bitcoin futures page shows deep liquidity and consistent participation, providing a reference for institutional activity as September options and futures roll toward quarter-end.A decline in CME basis coupled with stable open interest would point to carry normalization without wholesale deleveraging, whereas a deeper open-interest draw would confirm a broader reset.Seasonality colors the base rate as October approaches. Coinglass’ monthly return tables show October has historically delivered positive median returns more often than not, a pattern traders shorthand as “Uptober.” Seasonality does not drive tape by itself, but when combined with a cleaner derivatives stack, it can tilt the odds toward recovery paths after sharp September shocks.What matters from here is whether leverage has been neutralized enough to let spot trade without outsized reflex.According to Coinglass, open interest remains large by year-to-date standards even after the weekend flush, funding has moderated but not collapsed, and heatmaps show actionable clusters within 5% to 8% of spot on both sides.Farside’s ETF ledger remains mixed rather than one-directional. CryptoQuant’s basis series sits in the watch zone. Laevitas and Deribit report skew still favoring puts over calls, a configuration that can flip quickly if price grinds higher and shorts press into green candles.The near-term tape, then, turns on positioning tells.If funding holds near zero, ETF prints turn net positive again for several sessions, and short gamma pockets migrate higher as skew normalizes, a squeeze toward $124,000 becomes the dominant path.If Treasury yields and the dollar remain firm while skew stays negative and ETF flows wobble, pressure builds for a check of $108,000 first.Traders watching the same dashboards will know quickly which path is materializing.Mentioned in this article



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