Bitcoin must conquer $92k to build upwards momentum, $70k key zone for support

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action remains centered around critical levels, with $92,000 acting as a necessary threshold for upward momentum and $70,000 emerging as a key support zone, according to a recent Glassnode report.

The report highlighted that price structure and on-chain data indicate strong confluence at these levels, shaping the broader market outlook. It also assessed Bitcoin’s recent price action and highlighted three significant milestones. 

The initial breakout at $70,000 in November 2024 marked the start of an aggressive upward trend, followed by a rapid surge past $80,000, reinforcing bullish sentiment. The market has since entered a consolidation phase, with the lower bound of this range set at approximately $90,000.

STH cost basis relevance

In this landscape, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis provides a framework for understanding these price movements and their relevance.

Historically, the STH cost basis has been a key reference point during bull market trends. Calculations of this metric’s sigma range define a local trading range, with the upper band at $130,000, the mid-level at $92,000, and the lower band at $71,000.

As of press time, Bitcoin’s spot price is at $89,208.77, trading between the mid-level and the lower bound of the sigma range of the STH cost basis. This suggests a testing phase for Bitcoin’s ability to hold above critical support levels.

Meanwhile, the Active Realized Price offers additional insight into investor positioning. This metric estimates the cost basis for active market participants and serves as a key threshold between bullish and bearish market conditions. 

At $70,000, the Active Realized Price aligns with the lower bound of the STH cost basis range, reinforcing the significance of this support level. The report noted that that a breakdown below this level could signal broader market weakness.

Macroeconomic factors in play

The report also noted that a liquidity contraction continues to influence crypto markets. A sustained uptrend in the US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects tightening financial conditions, often leading to downward pressure on risk assets.

As a 24/7 traded asset, Bitcoin has historically been an early indicator of liquidity shifts, responding swiftly to macroeconomic changes. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding a Strategic Crypto Reserve briefly boosted market sentiment. 

The proposed reserve, including BTC, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and XRP, triggered a short-lived rally. However, concerns around the proposal and sustained geopolitical uncertainty caused the rally to retrace back to pre-announcement price levels within a day.

Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations have led to heightened volatility. Over the past two weeks, realized volatility has surged across multiple time frames, with 1-week and 2-week rolling windows recording volatility levels exceeding 80%, marking some of the highest values observed this cycle.

Hold or flee

The report highlighted on-chain data pinpointing how investor positioning is evolving in response to this volatility.  

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric indicates that many Bitcoin holders acquired positions above $90,000. The initial sell-off pushed prices below $86,000, entering a region with limited prior trading activity. 

Between Feb. 26 and March 3, approximately 150,000 BTC (0.76% of the circulating supply) were transacted within this “air-gap” zone.

As prices attempt to recover, the market is testing whether investors who entered above $90,000 will use this rally to exit or continue holding despite unrealized losses.

Mentioned in this article