Bitcoin Nears Pre-Halving “Danger Zone”: Crash Imminent?

Taking to X, one analyst now says Bitcoin is inching closer to a critical juncture. This “Danger Zone” has historically coincided with sharp price corrections before Bitcoin halving events, raising concerns about a potential crash in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Approaching “Danger Zone”

According to price charts, Bitcoin is trading above $72,400 when writing. However, as time progresses, the coin is inching closer to the “Danger Zone.” Usually, when prices are at this region, as past price action shows, the coin tends to pull back sharply, unwinding gains. This area is time-based and takes place roughly two to four weeks before halving. 

The network will halve its miner rewards in roughly 33 days in mid-April 2024. Therefore, if past price action guides, it is likely that the expected miner sell-off might push the coin lower, denting the current optimism.

Miners who receive Bitcoin rewards for verifying transactions often sell portions of their holdings to lock in profits. By liquidating their stash, they can manage revenue fluctuations after halving. Additionally, by selling their BTC via exchanges or over-the-counter (OTC), they can diversify their assets or invest in their mining infrastructure to stay competitive.

Will BlackRock And Institutions Prevent A Price Dump? 

While there is a chance that BTC might slump before halving, some community members are buoyant. Most are adamant that the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a game-changer. In their assessment, the influx of billions of dollars from spot Bitcoin ETFs will buffer against selling pressure from miners. 

Furthermore, the sentiment is that the current market is less driven by retail euphoria, as seen in previous cycles, and more by large institutional players like Blackrock. These institutional players are now the primary source of demand, providing a sense of reassurance about the market’s stability and potential for growth.

While technical indicators suggest a potentially volatile period for Bitcoin in the next two to four weeks, the evolving market dynamics with increased institutional involvement introduce new variables. As fundamental factors are more influential than technical price-related predictions, only time will tell whether bulls will triumph over the expected deluge of miner liquidation.

So far, Ki Young Ju, the co-founder of CryptoQuant, shows that mining companies, especially in the United States, including Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain, are HODLing. Over the past few years, their holdings have increased, with Marathon Digital increasing their reserves by over 350%.

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView