Bitcoin price should hold above $112k as futures remain steady while options rise

The derivatives market absorbed a week of falling Bitcoin price without the kind of leverage reduction that usually marks stress.Futures open interest in BTC terms edged higher, notional tracked the 3.36% slide in spot, and options interest grew for two straight days into the decline. The setup looks more like repricing and hedging than deleveraging.Futures positioning held its ground despite the $3,910 pullback in spot from $116,403 on Sep. 18 to $112,493 on Sep. 24. Open interest in BTC contracts rose from 720,810 BTC to 724,990 BTC, a gain of 0.58%.Chart showing BTC-denominated Bitcoin futures OI from Sep. 10 to Sep. 24, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)Valued in dollars, the same positions slipped from $83.91 billion to $81.58 billion, down 2.78%, reflecting the direct drag of lower spot.Chart showing USD-denominated Bitcoin futures OI from Sep. 10 to Sep. 24, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)The pattern is consistentDollar notional popped to $85.79 billion on Sep. 19, eased the following day, and then fell stepwise until the close of Sep. 24. Contract units peaked at 734,350 BTC on Sep. 20 and troughed near 720,680 BTC on Sep. 23 before stabilizing. This left the market holding exposure but marking it lower, a sign of repricing rather than forced position cuts.Options OI fell into Sep. 22 at 495,960 BTC, then reversed with two sharp increases: +13,870 BTC on Sep. 23 and +9,810 BTC on Sep. 24. By the end of the week, total options OI stood at 519,640 BTC, up 1.97% from Sep. 18.Chart showing Bitcoin options OI from Sep. 10 to Sep. 24, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)The timing of these adds followed spot dipping into the low $112,000s, which points to hedges and structured flow rather than speculative chases. Dealers’ gamma exposure likely turned more negative around Sep. 23, meaning incremental option demand could have reinforced downside stickiness while reducing the scope for clean upside breaks.CME carried 142,210 BTC of OI worth $15.98 billion, with a 24-hour contraction of 2.23%. Offshore venues painted a different picture: Bybit rose 0.92%, OKX climbed 0.32%, and KuCoin gained 0.85%. Binance slipped slightly by 0.27%.The divergence lines up with the profiles of participants: institutions trimming size on CME, crypto-native accounts maintaining or even adding modest exposure offshore.Open interest to volume ratios reinforced the theme of sticky positioning, with CME and Bybit both above 1.3 and KuCoin above 1.6, implying OI remained elevated relative to turnover.Table showing the distribution of futures OI across exchanges on Sep. 24, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)The most telling day was Sep. 23. Spot dropped 2.29% to $112,604, futures notional lost $1.02 billion, BTC OI held nearly flat, and options OI jumped sharply. A futures-led liquidation would have shown clear reductions in BTC OI and broader notional erosion.Instead, the mix shows patient futures books paired with new option hedges. On Sep. 24, spot barely budged, notional eased again, and options OI continued climbing. That combination leaves the market positioned more defensively but without evidence of forced deleveraging.Correlations across the week confirm this mechanical but important difference. Price and dollar-denominated futures OI moved in near lockstep, while price and BTC OI barely correlated.Options OI carried a slight negative correlation with spot, reflecting the timing of hedge demand into weakness. These relationships suggest a steady market structure rather than one at risk of disorderly liquidation.The setup matters in two waysFirst, because there is no overhang of crowded longs, any stabilization in spot can expand notional quickly without requiring fresh positioning. That amplifies the potential for relief moves if buyers return.Second, because option hedges expanded into weakness, bounces could feel capped until those structures decay or are rolled off. Hedging activity may therefore suppress intraday volatility while skewing the market toward slower, stickier price action.The venue split adds another layer of nuance. If CME continues to bleed OI while Bybit and OKX add, basis and funding differentials may widen during U.S. trading hours. That rotation creates tactical relative-value opportunities between regulated and offshore markets, especially in periods of uneven ETF inflows or macro-driven flows.What remains absent, however, is any trace of panic. Futures in BTC terms are holding, options hedges are building, and the market is positioned to absorb the next directional push.The week closes with Bitcoin positioned defensively but orderly. Spot sits near $112,500, futures units are stable, and options hedges cushion the downside.Whether price stabilizes or weakens further, positioning is set to respond cleanly rather than forcefully.A move above mid $113,000s would quickly expand notional and lighten hedge drag, while a dip lower would likely see options continue to build.In either scenario, the market enters the next stretch hedged rather than fragile.Mentioned in this articleLatest Alpha Market Report



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