BTC Whales Declined Outflow Amid Trade War Escalation

Global markets are experiencing anxiety as the U.S.-China trade war intensifies in 2025. Yet, Bitcoin (BTC) whales are sending a bullish signal by holding and accumulating more BTC, offering hope to the crypto market. What does this mean for Bitcoin’s future amidst the economic uncertainty?

The Global Market in Turmoil: U.S.-China Trade War Heats Up

The year 2025 has brought a storm of economic tension, largely driven by the escalating trade war between the United States and China. Following his re-election, Trump has doubled down on his “America First” agenda, announcing sweeping tariffs on imports from multiple countries, with a particular focus on China. These policies have sparked fears of global trade disruptions, with experts warning of a potential breakdown in supply chains.

On April 4, 2025, CNBC reported that Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs of over 125% on U.S. goods, targeting key sectors like agriculture and fuel. This escalation marks a significant shift from China’s previously moderate responses, with additional measures including adding 11 American companies to its “unreliable entity list” and imposing export controls on 16 others.

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war is no longer just a skirmish—it’s a full-blown economic showdown, with both nations digging in their heels. For the crypto market, which has historically been sensitive to macroeconomic events, this raises the question: how will Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, weather this storm?

A Beacon of Hope: BTC Whales Signal Confidence in the Crypto Market

Amid the uncertainty of the U.S.-China trade war, Bitcoin whales are sending a surprisingly bullish signal to the market. These whales are not selling off their holdings despite the global economic turbulence. Instead, they’re accumulating more BTC, a behavior that mirrors their actions during the sideways market of August–September 2024, as noted in the same analysis.

The Actions of BTC Whales

CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 inflows to total exchange inflows, has remained low, indicating minimal selling pressure from these large holders.

The present situation is a significant departure from what we might expect during a crisis. Historically, whales have been known to exit the market ahead of major downturns. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crash, whales distributed their holdings before Bitcoin’s price plummeted from $10,000 to below $4,000 in March 2020. Their early exit preceded a sharp drop, demonstrating their ability to anticipate market shifts.

However, in 2025, despite the trade war fears, these whales are holding firm and even increasing their positions.

What This Means for the Market

The accumulation by BTC whales is a powerful signal for the crypto market, particularly for retail investors who often look to these large players for cues.

When whales hold or buy more Bitcoin, it suggests they believe in the asset’s long-term value and expect prices to rise. This behavior can have a calming effect on the market, reassuring smaller investors who might otherwise panic-sell during periods of uncertainty.

Historical Context

Comparing the current situation to past crises provides further insight. During the COVID-19 crash, whales sold off their holdings, signaling a lack of confidence in Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. In contrast, their current accumulation suggests that they view the trade war as a temporary correction within a broader bull cycle, rather than a structural crisis.

Furthermore, many experts suggested that the trade war fears are a “manufactured crisis” rather than a genuine economic collapse —as is COVID-19. The fact that whales are not exiting, unlike in 2020, indicates that they see this as an opportunity to buy the dip, expecting a recovery once the trade tensions subside.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin? A New Era of Stability and Growth

As the U.S.-China trade war continues to dominate headlines, the future of Bitcoin looks increasingly promising, thanks to the confidence displayed by whales and broader market trends.

Maintaining Dominance in the Crypto Space

Bitcoin remains the undisputed leader in the cryptocurrency market, with its dominance (BTC.D) holding strong. Despite the rise of altcoins, Bitcoin’s market share has been bolstered by growing institutional adoption and supportive policies under the Trump administration. Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including the creation of a Bitcoin task force and proposals for a national crypto reserve, has further solidified Bitcoin’s position as the go-to digital asset. The accumulation by whales only reinforces this dominance, as their confidence signals to the market that Bitcoin is here to stay as the top cryptocurrency.

Evolving Beyond a “Risky Asset”

Historically, Bitcoin has been labeled a “risk asset,” often correlated with speculative markets like tech stocks. However, the current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is shedding this reputation and emerging as a reliable store of value, akin to gold. Several analyses predict that once the trade war fears subside, both the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) and China will resume quantitative easing (QE) to stimulate their economies.

This influx of liquidity is expected to benefit assets like gold first, followed by Bitcoin, which is increasingly considered “digital gold.” Many researchers support this view, noting that while Bitcoin may not be a safe haven during crises, it can act as a diversifier in certain circumstances, particularly as a hedge against inflation.

The fact that whales are accumulating rather than selling aligns with this bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could see significant gains once global economic conditions stabilize.

Read more: Bitcoin Plunges Amid Fallout from Trump’s Tariff Policy

Trump is Ready to Negotiate with China within Commercial Statements

Despite escalating global political and trade tensions, particularly for China, the White House has stated that President Donald Trump remains ready to negotiate with China. This news quickly sparked positive reactions across the crypto market, especially for Bitcoin’s price.

Conclusion

BTC whales’ confidence amidst the U.S.-China trade war offers a positive signal for investors. By holding and accumulating, they suggest Bitcoin will weather the storm and emerge stronger, potentially as a leading store of value in the post-crisis economy. For now, the message from the whales is clear: stay the course—better days are ahead for Bitcoin.