How Bitcoin ETFs buy more than double the BTC mined

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $1.63 billion last week, bringing four-week net intake to $3.96 billion and marking nine positive weeks out of the last twelve.

The 12-week rolling sum stands at $6.08 billion, roughly mid-range for 2025 based on CryptoSlate’s internal tracker built from fund disclosures and public flow tables.

Year to date, net inflows total $22.78 billion, with $58.44 billion since inception.

An assets-under-management proxy is $155.9 billion, while the average weekly value traded over the past four weeks is $16.17 billion compared with a 12-week average of $17.90 billion.

Flows re-accelerated into the turn of the quarter as the policy and macro backdrop shifted.

The Federal Reserve cut rates in September, and market pricing tilts to further easing in the fourth quarter, lowering the hurdle for rate-sensitive allocators that use ETFs to add exposure.

The first day of the U.S. government shutdown pushed gold to record highs and the dollar lower, a cross-asset mix that has historically coincided with stronger crypto ETP prints. Global product data corroborate the turn.

CoinShares logged consecutive weekly inflows through late September, with Bitcoin capturing the majority of tickets, and $1.03 billion went into digital asset funds in the week to Sept. 29, including $790 million into Bitcoin vehicles. Liquidity remains ETF-centric.

Kaiko Research finds that U.S. hours have held a larger share of depth since the ETF launch and that ETF net flows explain only a modest share of daily BTC returns, with an R² near 0.32. This is a reminder that derivatives and macro still drive a large portion of variance.

With Q4 underway, simple scenario math frames the path for net flows and how much Bitcoin could be absorbed from circulating supply.

The past four weeks annualize to roughly $12.9 billion for the quarter, while the 12-week run-rate implies about $6.6 billion. The outer bands are provided by the 2025 extremes.

At an illustrative Bitcoin price of $115,000, each $1 billion over a four-week window maps to about 8,700 BTC of net buying, roughly 311 BTC per day.

Post-halving issuance averages near 450 BTC per day, or roughly 41,400 BTC over a 92-day quarter. The table below translates those rates to Q4 totals.

Scenario	Assumption	Q4 net flows (USD)	BTC absorbed at $115k	vs. miner issuance
Bull, retouch 2025 best 12-week pace	+$17.1B per 12 weeks	~+$18.5B	~161,000 BTC	~3.9× quarterly issuance
Base, sustain last 4-week pace	+$3.96B per 4 weeks	~+$12.9B	~112,000 BTC	~2.7×
Moderate, revert to 12-week average	+$6.08B per 12 weeks	~+$6.6B	~57,000 BTC	~1.4×
Bear, revisit 2025 worst 12-week run	−$4.56B per 12 weeks	~−$4.9B	~−43,000 BTC	≈−1.0×

In the Base path, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs would retire about 112,000 BTC from float this quarter, or roughly 2.7 times new issuance. This magnitude tends to tighten spot availability and keep basis supported when risk appetite is steady.

August’s CPI printed 2.9 percent year over year, helping reinforce the disinflation plus easing narrative that underpins allocator demand.

Seasonality adds a behavioral layer, with investors pointing to October’s historical strength for crypto.

The rolling 12-week sum of net flows shows flows falling toward the average after equaling the 2024 peak in mid July. Thus, recent weekly inflows surpass the current average trend, indicating a potential reversal in past patterns.

However, if the historical trend continues, net outflows could reach around $500 million per week by December.

Microstructure continues to evolve around ETF activity.

Kaiko’s work shows more trading clustered around U.S. creation and redemption windows, and that liquidity during those hours carries more weight in discovery than it did before ETF launch, which helps explain why price can grind even when flow prints are mixed.

The correlation framework, with ETF flow explaining only part of daily returns, also means macro releases, funding, and positioning on CME matter for the day-to-day path. Traders watching futures open interest and volume can use CME metrics to cross-validate risk appetite alongside fund flows, with Kaiko’s dashboards providing a consolidated view of depth and spreads across venues.

Rotation remains a subplot. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have drawn steady allocations since July, and a sell-side update this week framed ETH as a relative gainer at the margin. Reuters reported Citi lifted its year-end ETH target and trimmed BTC based on perceived shifts in investor flows.

For now, the U.S. remains the marginal buyer in this cycle, and CoinShares’ late-September update showed Bitcoin still dominating weekly tickets across global ETPs.

Short-term risks concentrate around data and policy timing.

The government shutdown may delay or distort early-month macro prints, including nonfarm payrolls and CPI, amplifying narrative swings when investors have fewer anchors.

That makes the ETF tape an even more visible thermometer for risk sentiment as Q4 begins.

If the recent four-week run rate holds, quarter-to-date net intake would track near $13 billion by year-end.

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