Is May the beginning of a new growth cycle for Bitcoin?

Amid growing concerns over escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and the weakening U.S. dollar, gold – the traditional safe-haven asset, broke its previous record, reaching $3,384 per ounce on April 21, 2025.

Shortly after, Bitcoin followed a similar trajectory, surging sharply to the $87,000 level — its highest point in nearly a month. This movement echoes mid-2020, when BTC began to be recognized as “digital gold” by institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s Performance Silences Doubts

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) surpassed 64% in mid-April— the highest level since 2021. This surge reflects a return to “safe haven” assets within the crypto market, as capital temporarily exits more volatile altcoins.

Market history shows that every major crypto bull cycle begins with Bitcoin leading the way before momentum spills over into other digital assets. Analysts view the rise in BTC dominance as a positive accumulation signal for a new growth phase.

Two structural factors are fueling this renewed optimism: the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 and renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

On April 17, total net inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs reached $106.9 million, the highest in nearly a month, according to Blockchain.News. BlackRock’s IBIT fund accounted for over 75% of the total capital. Institutional investors view this trend as a strong response to the correction from the $74,000 peak in March.

In the long term, the halving reduces daily BTC issuance by half, naturally creating upward price pressure. Historical data shows that in all three previous cycles, BTC prices surged 6 to 12 months after each halving event.

Read more: JP Morgan: Investors Prefer Gold Over Bitcoin as a Safe-Haven

Long-Term Forecast: $1 Million to $1.5 Million – Hope or Just a Hype?

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, recently reiterated his belief that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2035. In a post on X, he warned, “A Great Depression is coming. Credit card debt, student loans, and national debt are exploding. Unemployment is rising, and pensions are going bankrupt. You should stock up on gold, silver, and Bitcoin before it’s too late.”

Kiyosaki’s argument centers on the looming collapse of the traditional financial system. He believes governments and central banks will be unable to stop the spiraling debt and currency devaluation. To him, Bitcoin is an “escape-from-the-system” asset, much like gold was in the 20th century.

Meanwhile, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has set an even more ambitious target. In a recent interview with Bloomberg TV, Wood stated that if institutional investors continue increasing their exposure to digital assets, Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030. 

She argued that the market is still in the early stages of adoption, and a mere 2–3% shift in global assets toward Bitcoin would be enough to trigger a massive bull cycle.

“Bitcoin is the perfect digital solution to scarcity. Institutions have only dipped one foot into the market. If they step in fully, you won’t have time to board the train,” Wood said at the Invest In Innovation conference in March.

However, not everyone shares this optimism. “Whenever markets bet on sky-high targets, they often underestimate the real-world risks,” veteran analyst Benjamin Cowen warned in his April 20 newsletter. “If the Fed keeps rates higher than expected or if the U.S. imposes new taxes or mining restrictions, the entire rally could reverse in days.”

Trump & China: The Underlying Risk Facing Crypto Markets

The recent surge in gold and Bitcoin prices isn’t just driven by the narrative of “safe haven assets.” Global macroeconomic forces, particularly those stemming from China and the U.S., are exerting a new layer of invisible pressure on digital asset markets.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has just marked its fifth consecutive month of gold purchases. In March 2025 alone, China added 5 metric tons to its reserves, bringing the official total to a record high of 2,292 tons, representing about 6.5% of the country’s total foreign exchange reserves.

However, the real figures may be significantly higher. According to a new report from Goldman Sachs, China is estimated to have purchased as much as 50 tons of gold in February, 10 times the officially reported amount. Over the past three years, China’s gold transactions on the London OTC market have far exceeded public disclosures, suggesting that Beijing is quietly stockpiling gold to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and Western financial systems.

“This isn’t just about hoarding precious metals; it’s a geopolitical strategy,” noted a senior analyst at ANZ Bank. “China is clearly preparing for a prolonged period of financial tension with the United States.”

As China turns to gold, Trump’s U.S. seems to be entering a new era of “Bitcoin nationalization.”

On the surface, it may seem like a historic milestone—recognizing Bitcoin as a component of the national financial strategy. However, several experts have raised concerns about the potential long-term consequences.

Several crypto firms linked to Eric Trump and Jared Kushner appear to benefit from Trump-era favorable policies. These include privileged access to state-held Bitcoin reserves and federal digital asset contracts.

Renae Warner of Georgetown warned that economic power shouldn’t rest with politicians and Bitcoin must stay politically independent.

Lastly, Coinglass data shows long positions clustering at $91K – $95K, while shorts pile up around $82K – $84K. If BTC breaks $90,000, a major short squeeze could follow, triggering auto-buys and a sharp price spike.

However, a drop below $85,000 could spark a long liquidation cascade and drive prices down sharply within hours.

Conclusion

May signal a new Bitcoin growth cycle, fueled by halving, ETF inflows, and global economic shifts. As China hoards gold and Trump eyes Bitcoin control, digital assets are turning into tools of state strategy.

Still, investors should temper their optimism with caution. Elevated rates, miner taxes, and political risks threaten Bitcoin’s momentum. Is this a true supercycle or just a brief rally amid lingering macro uncertainty?

Read more: Upbit and Bithumb: New Hope for Altcoin Holders