StanChart predicts Bitcoin rally to $120,000 in Q2

Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to a new all-time high of $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, driven by strategic asset reallocations and shifting investment flows, according to a new forecast from Standard Chartered.

In a research note published on April 28, the bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said several factors are culminating in a bullish environment for Bitcoin.

Kendrick said:

“I think we are building into one of those topside moves right now, for several reasons.”

According to Kendrick, these include strategic asset reallocations, US investors divesting from domestic assets, Bitcoin whale accumulation, and flows shifting out of gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs.

He noted that “historical price action (short topside bursts followed by months of sideways price action) suggests it is vital” to anticipate such moves.

Strategic reallocation

According to the report, a strategic move away from US assets is a major catalyst for Bitcoin’s expected upswing.

Kendrick highlighted that the rising US Treasury term premium, a metric closely correlated with Bitcoin price movements, is signaling a reallocation trend that could favor Bitcoin.

Time-of-day trading patterns also suggest that “US investors themselves are divesting out of US assets,” while on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin whales have been steadily accumulating during recent months.

Kendrick said that flows out of traditional gold ETFs and into Bitcoin ETFs have also started, adding further momentum to the outlook.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,000, roughly seven times higher than its cycle low from November 2022. Standard Chartered expects these supportive factors to push Bitcoin to “a fresh all-time high” in the second quarter.

Path to $200,000 in sight

Looking further ahead, Kendrick reaffirmed the lender’s end-2025 price target, stating:

“Then onto my $200k end-year forecast.”

The report emphasized that while “timing the upswing is tricky,” the indicators now lining up suggest an imminent move higher.

A chart included in the research note illustrated the strong historical correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the US Treasury term premium, reinforcing the argument that macroeconomic shifts could accelerate Bitcoin’s growth.

Kendrick concluded the note with a recommendation to position for an imminent upside move in Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered’s bullish stance comes as Bitcoin continues to attract institutional inflows and broader acceptance as a strategic asset amid global financial market uncertainty.

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