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Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin (BTC) could rally above $73,000 before the US election, driven by rising ETF inflows and a surge in call options activity, according to a research note shared with CryptoSlate.
StanChart’s global head of digital assets, Geoffrey Kendrick, highlighted several key market movements signaling bullish sentiment ahead of the November vote.
Bitcoin poised for a major rally
Kendrick highlighted that net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs have climbed to around 916,000 BTC as of Oct. 14. This increase coincides with significant interest in upside Bitcoin call options, particularly at the $80,000 strike level for the Dec. 27 expiry.
In the past week alone, an additional 1,600 BTC was added to the open interest of the $80,000 call option on Deribit. This surge in options trading, combined with consistent ETF inflows, suggests that traders are positioning for a potential price breakout as economic and political conditions align ahead of the election.
Kendrick also highlighted the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin’s outlook. He suggested that under current conditional probabilities, if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, there is a 70% chance of a Republican sweep. Such an outcome could lead to more favorable regulations for digital assets, potentially boosting Bitcoin’s price further.
He added that Bitcoin is likely to outperform Ethereum and other assets in the lead-up to the election, driven by the strength in ETF inflows and the growing integration of digital assets into traditional finance.
MicroStrategy outlook
Kendrick highlighted MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) recent stock performance, noting a clear divergence from Bitcoin’s price since mid-September. While Bitcoin has remained relatively flat, MSTR’s NAV multiple has surged, reflecting growing investor confidence in the company’s strategic role in the market.
Kendrick attributed this rise in MSTR’s multiple to the potential impact of the Bank Custody Exemption Rule SAB 121, which could allow institutional counterparties to lend out MicroStrategy’s 250,000 BTC holdings.
This would create additional yield opportunities, enhancing the company’s financial position. Kendrick emphasized that this development makes MSTR’s stock increasingly attractive, even as Bitcoin’s price remains stable.
He added that the decoupling of MSTR’s stock from Bitcoin is seen as a sign of rising institutional interest in the broader digital asset ecosystem as it gains legitimacy. MicroStrategy’s strategic position as a major holder of BTC is driving its stock higher, positioning the company for further success ahead of the US election.
