Why the drop in Bitcoin UTXOs, transactions, and fees is not bearish

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has been declining, with transaction counts, UTXO numbers, and fees all dropping significantly in the past three months. At first glance, this might seem like a negative signal, suggesting reduced demand or waning network usage. However, a deeper look at the data tells a different story.

The number of UTXOs steadily increased through most of 2024, peaking around December before beginning a sharp decline that continued into early 2025.

This decline follows a reduction in the total transaction count, which, while volatile throughout the past year, has been trending downward since December 2024.

Bitcoin transaction fees tell a similar story. After periods of high congestion and surging fees during the April 2024 halving and subsequent market rallies, fees have now dropped to historically low levels, staying near 1–2 sat/vByte.

This environment creates an ideal window for UTXO consolidation, where large holders and exchanges can merge their outputs to optimize for future efficiency. The decline in UTXOs isn’t an indication of selling but rather a technical move to minimize transaction costs before the network experiences another period of high fees.

Lower transaction counts also align with this shift. The declining number of on-chain transactions suggests that fewer unique transactions are being made, but this doesn’t necessarily mean demand for Bitcoin has fallen. Instead, it indicates that fewer entities are moving coins frequently.

The growing number of institutional custody solutions is likely reducing the need for on-chain transfers. Unlike retail traders who move BTC between exchanges or wallets regularly, institutions typically hold their Bitcoin in cold storage for extended periods, making their activity less visible on-chain.

A key factor dispelling the notion of bearishness is Bitcoin’s price resilience. Despite a sharp decline in UTXOs and transactions, Bitcoin has remained stable above $90,000, showing no signs of market exhaustion.

The missing link in the on-chain decline narrative is the role of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since their launch, these ETFs have absorbed a massive percentage of BTC supply, with inflows surging through the end of 2024.

While January and February 2025 have seen slightly lower inflows than the record highs of late last year, ETFs are still steadily accumulating Bitcoin, providing a strong floor for price stability. When institutions buy Bitcoin through ETFs, the BTC they acquire is typically moved into custodial storage, significantly reducing the need for on-chain transactions. This helps explain why transaction counts are falling even as institutional demand for Bitcoin remains high.

On-chain trends aren’t reflecting a weakening market but rather a market shift. Retail traders, historically contributing to high on-chain activity, appear less active as ETFs take over as a primary avenue for Bitcoin investment. Large holders and exchanges have used the recent low-fee environment to optimize their UTXO structures, reducing the number of small unspent outputs.

As a result, on-chain data appears quieter, but this quietness is not an indicator of bearish sentiment — it’s simply a sign that Bitcoin’s usage patterns are evolving. The drop in transactions, UTXOs, and fees highlights the market’s increasing maturity, where long-term holders and institutions are playing a bigger role in shaping Bitcoin’s financial landscape. The network is becoming more efficient, the supply remains constrained, and demand is still robust through ETF inflows.

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