Will it be a Bullish “Uptober” or Bearish “Rektober”?

October is often seen as a pivotal month in the crypto market. It has been a period where the market bounces back after a challenging September. 

For years, the crypto community has coined the term “Uptober” to describe these bullish trends, while skeptics sometimes call it “Rektober” if market predictions fall short. 

Given the volatility of the 2024 market, investors are eagerly anticipating what October will bring. Will it be a month of gains, or will disappointment dominate? This research report delves into investor sentiment, forecasts, and key factors shaping the market’s direction.

Key Findings

• 3 out of 4 crypto investors are confident that October 2024 will bring significant market gains, reinforcing the “Uptober” narrative.
• Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are expected to be the top altcoins, set to rise alongside Bitcoin.
• More than half of crypto investors expect Bitcoin at $80,000 in Uptober
• Nearly half of investors anticipate a bullish Q4, underlining strong optimism for market growth.
• The US Presidential Election is viewed as a major catalyst, with 51% of investors expecting it to influence Q4 market movements.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is predicted to dominate crypto narratives, with 52.5% of investors highlighting its importance in Q4.

September Market Sentiment: Rektember or Resilience?

Despite September’s notorious reputation as a tough month for crypto—often labeled “Rektember”—the mood among investors has remained largely optimistic. 

More than half of those surveyed (55.2%) maintain a positive outlook on the market, driven by several factors. Among these, 27.6% of investors expect a rally in Uptober, while 24.2% believe in continued growth in crypto adoption as more users and institutions get involved in the space.

However, not everyone shares this optimism. A notable 44.8% of participants expressed pessimism about September, with concerns primarily centered on the weakening global economy, which is the key issue for 52.7% of investors. 

Interestingly, when it came to portfolio adjustments during this challenging month, the majority of investors chose to hold steady, with 63% preparing for potential gains in Uptober. 

Meanwhile, a smaller but still notable group of 20.2% bought more crypto assets in anticipation of market growth, further demonstrating the prevailing belief that October would bring better results.

Forecasting October 2024: 75% of Worldwide Crypto Investors Prepare for a Bullish Uptober

As October approaches, investor sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with around 75.3% predicting a bullish Uptober. 

Of these, nearly half, or 48.3%, expect market gains of 5% to 10%, while 20.4% predict even stronger growth in the 10% to 20% range. Some investors, about 6.6%, are even more optimistic, forecasting gains above 20%.

Global Crypto Market in “Uptober”

The prediction for Uptober is primarily fueled by Bitcoin’s historical performance in October, with 38.7% of investors pointing to past market trends as a key factor. 

Year	Oct Bitcoin Price, YTD
2014	12.95%
2015	-33.49%
2016	14.71%
2017	47.81%
2018	-3.83%
2019	10.17%
2020	27.7%
2021	39.93%
2022	5.56%
2023	28.52%

Bitcoin’s performance YTD

Additionally, a positive market sentiment, supported by 51.2% of respondents, further strengthens the belief in an Uptober rally. Other contributing factors include institutional adoption, cited by 16.3% of investors, and key catalyst events, mentioned by 15.6%. 

Upcoming crypto-friendly regulations are also seen as influential by 22.8%, while 20.6% of investors highlight strong technical breakout patterns as a reason for their optimism.

Among the altcoins, Ethereum is seen as the strongest performer, with 47.5% of investors favoring it for October gains. Solana and BNB are also expected to rise, favored by 17.7% and 19.6% of investors, respectively, alongside Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Path to $80,000

A key question this month is whether Bitcoin will hit the much-anticipated $80,000 mark. Just over half of the investors surveyed—51%—believe Bitcoin could achieve this milestone during Uptober. Meanwhile, 49% think this target will take longer to reach, with some expecting it by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

This optimism is largely driven by the belief that a Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election could significantly boost Bitcoin prices. Trump’s potential win is seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies due to his administration’s historically relaxed stance on financial regulations and its impact on institutional investments​.

Among the 49% of people who believe Bitcoin will not reach $80,000 during Uptober, 19.3% expect it to hit this milestone by the end of the year. A larger group, 73.6% anticipate that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 within the next year, while 7.1% have other timelines in mind.

Market Expectations for Q4 2024: Bullish Sentiment Dominates

Nearly half of all investors expect a bullish market, with 45.9% predicting an upward trend. Others, around 37.4%, anticipate the market will move sideways, while only 16.7% foresee a bearish market, demonstrating an overall positive outlook for the remainder of the year.

Time	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
2023	+71.77%	+7.19%	-11.54%	+56.90%
2022	-1.46%	-56.2%	-2.57%	-14.75%
2021	+103.17%	-40.36%	+25.01%	+5.45%
2020	-10.83%	+42.33%	+17.97%	+168.02%
2019	+8.74%	+159.36%	-22.86%	-13.54%
2018	-49.7%	-7.71%	+3.61%	-42.16%
2017	+11.89%	+123.86%	+80.41%	+215.07%
2016	-3.06%	+62.06%	-9.41%	+58.17%
2015	-24.14%	+7.57%	-10.05%	+81.24%
2014	-37.42%	+40.43%	-39.74%	-16.70%

Historical Bitcoin quarterly returns in Q4

A key factor shaping Q4 expectations is the upcoming US Presidential Election, with 50.4% of investors believing it will significantly influence the crypto market. 

Additionally, large-scale institutional investments are expected to play a major role, as 24.3% of participants identify this as a key driver. Meanwhile, upcoming crypto-friendly regulations are expected to contribute positively, with 33.4% citing potential regulatory changes as critical for future market growth.

AI Leads the Crypto Narrative in Q4

As Q4 approaches, AI has emerged as the dominant theme in the crypto space. More than half of the surveyed investors, at 55.7%, believe that artificial intelligence will drive the market’s direction in the coming months. 

Other trends, like NFTs and the metaverse, are still important but trail behind AI, with only 16.1% of investors highlighting these areas. Gaming and metaverse projects, favored by 10.6%, also remain relevant but are seen as minor compared to AI.

As blockchain and AI continue to converge, it is clear that investors are closely watching these developments for future opportunities.

Conclusion

As we approach October 2024, the crypto community is brimming with optimism. The strong belief in an “Uptober” scenario, coupled with positive expectations for Q4, suggests a potentially exciting period ahead for cryptocurrency markets.

The upcoming US Presidential Election, potential regulatory changes, and technological advancements, particularly in AI, are key factors to watch as we move into the final quarter of 2024.

As always in the world of crypto, the only certainty is change. Whether October 2024 brings an “Uptober” surge or a “Rektober” surprise, it promises to be an eventful month for cryptocurrency enthusiasts.

Methodology

This study surveyed 1,200 respondents across a diverse range of demographics. 56% of respondents fall within the Millennial age group (aged 26-41), while 25.3% belong to Generation Z (aged 10-25). Generation X, consisting of those aged 42-57, makes up 15.2% of the participants, and 3.5% of respondents are aged 58 and above.

In terms of gender, the survey was predominantly female, with 64.7% women compared to 34.7% men, while 0.7% preferred not to disclose their gender.

Geographically, nearly half of the respondents, 49.5%, are based in the Americas, including North, South, and Central America, as well as the Caribbean. The next largest group comes from Europe, accounting for 19.8%, followed by 20.7% from the Middle East and Africa. Finally, 10.1% of the respondents reside in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes areas like South Asia, Northeast Asia, and Oceania.